The rapid advancement in computing power over the past few decades has been primarily driven by the shrinking of transistors, which are the building blocks of computer processors. As transistors have become smaller, computers have become more capable, enabling them to perform tasks such as recording audio, taking and processing photos, doing math, rendering video games, and even talking. The number of transistors that can be packed into a given area has doubled approximately every 18-24 months, a phenomenon known as Moore’s Law.
However, the days of relying solely on shrinking transistors to drive computing power are coming to an end. As transistors get smaller, they become increasingly difficult to manufacture reliably, and the manufacturing challenges are exacerbated by the peculiar effect of quantum tunneling, which makes it difficult to create processors that function reliably.
To address this issue, there is a growing emphasis on 3D transistor designs, which take advantage of vertical space to allow for more transistors to be packed into the same footprint. One such 3D design is the Complementary Field-Effect Transistor (CFET), which is expected to be implemented by the early 2030s.
While 3D transistors offer a temporary solution to the end of Moore’s Law, they are only part of the picture. There is also a greater emphasis on designing processors that excel at specific tasks, such as neural processing units (NPUs) with AI applications, to maximize performance. Additionally, new materials with better properties may allow next-generation transistors to shrink even further, or a breakthrough in quantum computing may make them more useful for everyday applications. However, these options may ultimately be limited by the laws of physics.
