The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional security bloc spearheaded by China and Russia, is expected to expand once again at its annual leaders’ summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, by welcoming Belarus, a staunch Russian ally that has openly supported Moscow’s war on Ukraine.
Originally established in 2001 to combat terrorism and promote border security in China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, the SCO has been gradually expanding to counter what China and Russia see as US “hegemony.” After the addition of India, Pakistan, Iran, and now Belarus, the organization will consist of 10 member states, representing over 40% of the world’s population and around a quarter of the global economy.
With Xi Jinping, the leader of China, and Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, in attendance for the summit, which begins Wednesday, the expected admission of Belarus signals a geopolitical push by both nations. China and Russia’s growing international visibility and economic weight are broadening the SCO’s geopolitical ambitions, moving beyond security and economic cooperation towards challenging the dominance of US-led institutions.
While Belarus provides little in terms of economic or security cooperation for the SCO, it highlights a significant geopolitical shift, especially with Russia deeply engaged in the third year of its war against Ukraine. Moreover, the growing number of countries in the organization supports China and Russia’s vision of an alternative world order without US involvement in Eurasia.
The Belarus admission is a cause for frictions and unease among SCO members, notably India and those who maintain good relations with Western powers. Central Asian states, too, find themselves in an awkward position given their desire to pursue a balanced relationship with major powers without commitment to one specific alliance. India appears to be losing interest in the SCO as well, skipping this year’s summit, pointing towards its perception of the organization being ineffective for pursuing its regional interests.
Even though the SCO expansion further diversifies the bloc and dilutes its focus, China continues to engage directly with Central Asian countries without Russian involvement through the China-Central Asia forum. The organization, initially pitched as a counterweight to US-led institutions, remains a less cohesive and weaker bloc compared with organizations like NATO or the G7. If it continues expanding beyond its core regional mandate, the relevance and coherence of the SCO could suffer a decline.
