SpaceX junk crash-landed on Earth. We need better space debris models.

The SpaceX Dragon Capsule, a reusable spacecraft designed to transport astronauts and cargo to and from the International Space Station, experienced an unforeseen incident in May when a non-reusable part of the capsule, known as the trunk, crash-landed in North Carolina. This event was confirmed by NASA after reviewing the incident. The trunk, which is discarded just before the capsule returns to Earth, should ideally burn up upon re-entry, but this does not always occur.

Similar incidents have happened in the past few months, with debris from the Dragon Capsule being found in North Carolina, Franklin, North Carolina, and a farmer’s field in Saskatchewan, Canada. Additionally, a two-pound piece of debris from the International Space Station fell in Florida in March. These incidents highlight the challenges in predicting and modeling when space debris will burn up in Earth’s atmosphere.

The increase in objects launched into space annually, with the US being the biggest contributor, has led to an accumulation of space junk since the 1960s. This space junk can pose a risk to people and property, although the chances are low. A 2022 study estimated that there’s about a 10% chance one or more people will be struck by space debris within a 10-year period.

NASA plans to use the recovered debris from the North Carolina incident to improve their space debris models. Another solution suggested by space debris expert Jonathan McDowell is to reduce the number of uncontrolled re-entries and implement controlled de-orbit for small space objects. This would require new laws and federal funding to help NASA and companies like SpaceX clean up their junk.

Despite the risks, NASA and SpaceX, among others, continue to launch objects into space, with 2,664 objects sent to or beyond Earth’s orbit in 2023 alone. NASA assures that it works to ensure its operations are safe for the public and strives to continuously improve processes. SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment regarding this incident.

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