President Joe Biden is currently serving his term and is expected to complete it without a recession, making him the first recession-free first-term president since Bill Clinton in the 1990s. The last recession occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which was during Donald Trump’s fourth year as president. The economy has been expanding since then, and economists predict this trend will continue, with a 30% chance of recession in the next 12 months, the lowest level in two years.
Presidents often face recessions during their terms, especially if they serve two terms. Recessions can significantly impact a president’s popularity and re-election chances. For instance, the 2020 recession contributed to Trump’s loss to Biden. The recovery from the recession took years, with employment not returning to pre-COVID levels until 2023.
Previous presidents have also faced recessions during their terms. Barack Obama had a recession in 2009, which began during George W. Bush’s presidency and ended by Obama’s fourth month in office. The expansion that followed was slow but steady, continuing until the COVID-19 recession in 2020.
George W. Bush endured an eight-month recession that started two months after he took office in 2001, which was part of the dot-com crash. This recession was largely forgotten by the time Bush ran for re-election in 2004 and won easily.
Bill Clinton won the White House in 1992 amid the hangover from another eight-month recession that hit during George H. W. Bush’s single term. The recession ended more than a year before the 1992 election, yet the slow recovery helped the newcomer from Arkansas beat the entrenched incumbent.
Ronald Reagan faced a rough 16-month recession that started in 1981, his first year in office. However, the recovery that followed was quick and robust, and the economy boomed during the remainder of Reagan’s eight years. The Reagan recession was actually part two of a double dip, with the first dip occurring during Jimmy Carter’s last year in office, sinking his 1980 reelection bid.
If Biden manages to complete his term without a recession, it will be a significant achievement. However, his poor standing with voters, despite the strong economy, suggests that voters may not always prioritize the economy when making their voting decisions. Inflation, which ravaged consumers’ purchasing power during Biden’s second and third years in office, has been a major concern for voters. Despite this, the solid economy, including the normalization of inflation, is generally good for everyone. Voters are free to enjoy the good times while they last.
